Bitcoin Faces Biggest Yearly Price Loss on Record

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent drop to 14-month lows has left the cryptocurrency on track for its biggest ever yearly loss.

Just three weeks ago, the cryptocurrency was changing hands at $6,300 – already a 54 percent year-to-date drop, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI). The dominant market narrative back then was that BTC would trim losses in the last few weeks of 2018, having bottomed out around $6,000 in five months to October.

However, on Nov. 14, BTC nosedived below the crucial 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) support, signaling a resumption of the sell-off from the record high of $20,000 reached last December. As a result, prices ultimately dropped to 14-month lows below $3,500 on Nov. 25 before regaining some poise.

With the bears still keeping the upper hand, a significant recovery from current levels appears unlikely before year’s end, and BTC looks set to snap its three-year winning streak with a 73 percent annual price drop – its biggest on record.

As seen in the table above, BTC’s only previous annual loss was a 57 percent drop in 2014. This year’s loss would be the biggest on record as long as prices hold below $5,959.

Meanwhile, the technical charts indicate that the cryptocurrency may extend the loss further before the year’s end.

Weekly chart

As seen above (price data via Bitstamp), BTC has found acceptance below the crucial support of the 200-week EMA, bolstering the already bearish technical set-up represented by the descending triangle breakdown, confirmed two weeks ago.

4-hour chart

BTC has suffered a symmetrical triangle breakdown on the 4-hour chart, indicating that the recent corrective bounce ended at the Nov. 29 high of $4,400 and the bears have likely regained control.

The stacking order of the 50-candle EMA, below the 100-candle EMA, below the 200-candle EMA is also a classic bear indicator.

BTC, therefore, risks re-testing the recent low of $3.474 in the next few days.

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  • Bitcoin is on track to post its biggest annual price drop on record. That would change only if prices rise above $5,959.
  • The symmetrical triangle breakdown seen in the 4-hour chart favors a drop to $3,474 (Nov. 25 low). Acceptance below that level would further strengthen the bear grip and open up downside toward the psychological support of $3,000.
  • A short-term bullish reversal would be confirmed only above $4,400 (Nov. 29 high).

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk Archives; price charts by Trading View



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Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC/USD Remains In Downtrend Below $4,020

Key Points

  • Bitcoin price failed to break the $4,080 resistance level and declined recently against the US Dollar.
  • Yesterday’s highlighted two key bearish trend lines are active with resistance near $4,000 and $4,090 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The price remains in a major downtrend and it could extend losses below $3,800 in the near term.

Bitcoin price is still in a bearish zone below $4,020 against the US Dollar. BTC/USD could accelerate losses once there is a break below the $3,740 support.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Yesterday, we discussed that bitcoin price could face a solid resistance near $4,080 and $4,150 against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair recovered recently above the $3,920 resistance. There was even a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $4,199 high to $3,737 low. However, the upside move was capped by the key $4,080 resistance area and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

The price failed near $4,080 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $4,199 high to $3,737 low. A fresh decline was initiated and the price moved below $4,000 and $3,920. It is currently trading near the $3,800 support, with a bearish angle. On the downside, an immediate support is near $3,740, below which the price may even break the $3,700 support zone. On the upside, there are many hurdles near the $4,000 level. Moreover, yesterday’s highlighted two key bearish trend lines are active with resistance near $4,000 and $4,090 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Looking at the chart, bitcoin price is clearly trading in a major downtrend below $4,020 and $4,080. As long as there is no close above $4,150, there could be consistent declines in BTC.

Looking at the technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is placed in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is now well below the 40 level.

Major Support Level – $4,020

Major Resistance Level – $3,740

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Ripple Price Analysis: XRP/USD Buyers Facing Crucial Resistance

Key Highlights

  • Ripple price declined and revisited the $0.3380 support area against the US dollar.
  • Yesterday’s highlighted important bearish trend line is in place with resistance at $0.3500 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
  • The pair must stay above the $0.3380 and $0.3360 support levels to bounce back in the near term.

Ripple price is under pressure against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. XRP/USD needs to surpass $0.3500 and $0.3540 to gain bullish momentum.

Ripple Price Analysis

During the past few sessions, there were bearish moves below $0.3650 in ripple price against the US Dollar. The XRP/USD pair traded lower below $0.3500 and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average. There were a couple of correction waves, but upsides were capped by $0.3650 and $0.3510. The last rejection was near the $0.3500-0.3510 zone before the price traded below $0.3400.

The price tested the $0.3360-0.3380 support area where buyers emerged. A fresh low was formed at $0.3341 and the price is currently consolidating. The first hurdle is yesterday’s highlighted important bearish trend line is in place with resistance at $0.3500 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. Above the trend line, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $0.3750 high to $0.3341 low may stop upsides. However, the main resistance is near $0.3580 and the 100 hourly SMA. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $0.3750 high to $0.3341 low.

Looking at the chart, ripple price seems to be following a bearish path below $0.3600 and $0.3580. On the downside, if there is a break below the $0.3380 and $0.3360 supports, there could be more losses. The next key support is near $0.3180 where buyers could emerge.

Looking at the technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is about to move into the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is just above the 40 level.

Major Support Level – $0.3380

Major Resistance Level – $0.3580

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Cardano Price Analysis: ADA/USD Could Extend Declines Below $0.038

Key Highlights

  • ADA price failed to stay above the $0.0380 support and declined recently against the US Dollar (tethered).
  • There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $0.0398 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair (data feed via Bittrex).
  • The pair could continue to move down and it is likely to revisit the $0.0350 support level.

Cardano price failed to gain momentum against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. ADA/USD declined below $0.0380 and it could continue to move down towards $0.0350.

Cardano Price Analysis

After trading close to the $0.0450 resistance, cardano price started a downside move against the US Dollar. The ADA/USD pair declined and traded below the $0.0420 and $0.0400 support levels. There was a close below the $0.0400 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, the price broke the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the last recovery from the $0.0379 low to $0.0433 high.

More importantly, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $0.0398 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair. The pair is now trading below the $0.0380 support level with a bearish angle. If the price continues to move down, there are chances of it testing the $0.0350 support. The 1.618 Fib extension level of the last recovery from the $0.0379 low to $0.0433 high is also near $0.0350. Therefore, the $0.0350 level is likely to act as a strong support. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $0.0380 level. The main hurdle is near the $0.0400 level and the 100 hourly SMA.

The chart indicates that ADA price is under a lot of pressure below the $0.0380 support. There could be more declines, but the $0.0350 support is likely to act as a strong barrier for sellers.

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ADA/USD is placed in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ADA/USD is currently well below the 40 level.

Major Support Level – $0.0350

Major Resistance Level – $0.0400

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Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Could Revisit $100

Key Highlights

  • ETH price failed to break the $113-114 resistance and declined again against the US Dollar.
  • This week’s followed bearish trend line is still in place with resistance at $112 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair remains at a risk of more losses below the $105 and $102 support levels.

Ethereum price struggled to clear important hurdles against the US Dollar and bitcoin. ETH/USD may slide further below the $105 level in the near term.

Ethereum Price Analysis

Yesterday, we discussed that upsides remain capped near $114-115 in ETH price against the US Dollar. The ETH/USD pair failed to break the $113-114 resistance zone and resumed its decline. Earlier, there was a decent recovery from the $105 support level. The price climbed above the $110 level to stage a recovery. It also climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $118 swing high to $104 low.

However, the upside move was capped by the $113-114 resistance zone. The price also failed to settle above $112 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Besides, the price was rejected near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $118 swing high to $104 low. A fresh decline is underway and the price is currently trading below $107. On the downside, the next major support is at $102, below which the price may perhaps revisit the $100 level. On the upside, this week’s followed bearish trend line is still in place with resistance at $112 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

Looking at the chart, ETH price is back in a bearish zone below $110. As long as there is no close above the 100 hourly SMA and $115, the price remains at a risk of more losses.

Hourly MACDThe MACD is back gaining strength in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSIThe RSI is moving lower and it is currently well below the 40 level.

Major Support Level – $102

Major Resistance Level – $112

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Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD Crashes Below $150

Key Points

  • Bitcoin cash price traded further lower and broke the $150 support level against the US Dollar.
  • There is a new connecting bearish trend line formed with resistance near $148 on the hourly chart of the BCH/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair remains at a risk of more losses below the $140 level in the near term.

Bitcoin cash price extended losses below $150 against the US Dollar. BCH/USD may continue to move down and it could even test the $125 level.

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis

Yesterday, we discussed that bitcoin cash price could break the $150 level against the US Dollar. The BCH/USD pair remained in a bearish zone and it did trade below the $160 and $150 levels. The decline was nasty as the price is now trading well below the $155 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The last swing low was formed near the $145 level before the price corrected higher.

It climbed above the $150 level and the $152 pivot level. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $166 high to $145 low. However, the upside move was capped by the $155 and $156 resistance levels. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $166 high to $145 low also acted as a resistance. Moreover, there is also a new connecting bearish trend line formed with resistance near $148 on the hourly chart of the BCH/USD pair. The pair declined again and broke the $145 low.

Looking at the chart, BCH price is under pressure below the $148 and $145 level. It seems like the price may continue to move down and it could even break $140 and $132.

Looking at the technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is slightly heavily in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BCH/USD is now near the oversold levels.

Major Support Level – $140

Major Resistance Level – $150

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EOS, Tron (TRX), Litecoin (LTC), Stellar Lumens (XLM), Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis

Losses are steep in EOS and this is partly because of block producer centralization claims and the uncertainty around Dan Larimer commitment. But while we expect bears to slow down, Tron is stable and up 22 percent in the last week. In fact, it could break and close above 1.5 cents main resistance line igniting buyers aiming at 3 cents.

EOS Price Analysis

The EOSIO network might be one of the fastest smart contracting platforms around but with a DPoS consensus algorithm introducing block producers or super nodes, the networks representatives now has to defend the blockchain from centralization criticism.

It’s now getting worse as Dan Larimer plan to “explore” and create another cryptocurrency. Further news indicate that Starteos—a block producer, will share their rewards with users who vote in their favor.

Read: EOS Centralization Woes Return as Block Producer Offers Money for Votes

Price wise and EOS slide to $1.5 would be faster more so if bears keep up with yesterday’s six percent losses. This was expected and as long as EOS/USD is stuck below $4 then we recommend trading in line with our previous trade plans, unloading EOS on every pull back. Thereafter we shall fade this plan once there are solid gains above $3.5—a level of importance in our analysis.

Litecoin (LTC) Price Analysis

LTC/USD Price Analysis

Thing is, sellers have an upper hand and though LTC/USD is now trading 90 percent from their 2017 peaks, we expect prices to find support as long as LTC is trading above $30.

At the moment, our previous trade plan is valid and before we recommend buys, we suggest patience until after there is convincing evidence of bulls involvement once there is a clear break and close above Nov 25 highs at $35.

Also Read: CoinBase and PayPal – A Match Made in Crypto Heaven?

Once this prints, then it could be an impetus for bulls to rally towards $50—our main resistance level as LTC/USD buyers bid to reverse 2018 losses.

Stellar Lumens (XLM) Price Analysis

Calgary’s NDAX is now the first Canadian exchange to avail the XLM/CAD pair.

XLM/USD Price Analysis

Even with this, XLM is struggling against sellers finding caps at around 20 cents and further losses that will see prices sink below Nov 2018 lows automatically invalidates our previous XLM/USD price analysis. Like before, if there are declines below 15 cents confirming Nov24 losses then Lumens might test 7 cents or May 2017 highs by the end of the year.

This may print if bulls fail to penetrate 25 cents endorsing the bear break out meltdown of week ending Nov 25.

Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis

ADA/USD Price Analysis

Perched at 10th, ADA/USD is one of the top performers in the top 10 adding five percent in the last week. This may appear positive but ADA is this year’s worst performers as bears have so far erased 2017 gains.

What’s worse is that we might end up registering new 2018 lows more so if there are drops below Nov 25 lows at 3.3 cents as bears deflate our bullish outlook cancelling the Morning Star in the pattern.

Like in previous ADA/USD trade plans, we suggest taking a neutral but bearish stand, buying ADA once there are high-volume bars closing above 4.5 cents. This shall trigger a wave of aggressive buyers aiming at 6 cents and later 9.5 cents as per our previous iterations.

Tron (TRX) Price Analysis

TRX/USD Price Analysis

 

TRX is up 22 percent in the last week and as TRX/USD find support, we might see the cancellation of the bear breakout pattern set in motion by Nov 19-20 break below.

Ideally, we would like to see a spike in trading volumes accompanying any surge above 1.5 cents in line with our last TRX/USD trade plan.

In that case, our first target will be at 3 cents with a safe stop at the lows of the breakout bar.

All Charts Courtesy of Trading View

Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed are those of the author and aren’t investment advice. Trading of any form involves risk and so do your due diligence before making a trading decision.



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BTC/USD Bottoming Up, Price Find Support At $3,700

Latest Bitcoin News

It is now official:  NASDAQ, the world’s second largest stock exchange will launch their Bitcoin Futures version by Q1 2019. This comes after days speculations after rumors began doing round that sources privy with development inside the exchange were confident that of the listing come next year.

While confirming, Vice President of NASDAQ’s media team Joseph Christinat said the team has put in a lot of effort to make it academic and they knew about Bitcoin and blockchain technology back in 2013. They have since funneled a lot of money towards making this a reality.

Read: Argo Blockchain Sees 146% Increase in Crypto Mining Package Sales

As they wait the approval from the US CFTC, Christinat reaffirmed that they shall execute their plan “no matter what” and the exchange is not concerned about dropping Bitcoin prices.

Of course, this goes on to show the level of acceptance and acknowledgement by institutions that Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies are here to stay. Therefore, the only sector that should feel the reverberation is the banking sector which now faces stiff competition from cheap, censor resistant and transparent blockchain cross border solutions.

Also Read: South Korea Reveals Plan to Tax ICOs and Cryptocurrencies

If anything, this is the kind of positive news the market needs as BTC prices struggle against sellers, approval from CFTC might breed confidence that regulators including the SEC now have a different perspective on Bitcoin and that the SEC might approve any of the five Bitcoin ETF proposals laid before it.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

Weekly Chart

At spot prices, BTC is back to green and up three percent from last week’s close but stable below $4000 in the last day. Of note though is the rejection of lower lows below our sell trigger line and main support at $3,700.

Because of the long lower wick and the absence of sell pressure as there is no upper wick as the week started with a bang as prices dropped from $4,300, we expect BTC to find support and even expand above $4,000  towards $4,500—700 resistance level.

From our last BTC/USD trade plans, it would be ideal if prices thrust above the upper limit of this trade range at $4,500 at the back of high volumes. Then conservative traders can begin loading up on dips with first targets at $5,000, $5,500 and later $6,000 with stops at the lows of the breakout bar.

Daily Chart

BTC/USD Price Analysis

Beck to the daily chart and our trade range is visible. Although bears are definitely in charge as week ending Nov 25 shows, we retain a neutral to bullish outlook believing that BTC prices are bottoming up.

Notice that there is clear rejection of lower lows and as long as prices accumulate horizontal as it trend above $3,700 or Nov lows, aggressive traders can load at spot with stops just at $3,700 lows.

But, a safer route will be to wait for convincing breakouts above $4,500 as aforementioned. Bull targets will be the same while drops below $3,700 could be inviting for sellers aiming at $3,000.

All Charts Courtesy of Trading View

Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed are those of the author and aren’t investment advice. Trading of any form involves risk and so do your due diligence before making a trading decision.



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Bitcoin Will ‘Surpass’ All-Time Price Highs by End of 2019, Says Quoine CEO

The CEO of Japanese fintech firm and crypto exchange operator Quoine has said he believes Bitcoin (BTC) will “surpass” its all-time price highs by the end of 2019, during an interview with Bloomberg Markets: Asia Dec. 4.

Speaking during the aftermath of an industry-wide price slump, Mike Kayamori said he expects new crypto market sentiment and momentum to set in after the new year, noting that “there’s nothing new, no catalyst” in the immediate future to drive prices back up.

The CEO stated that whereas many had called $4,000 as the “technical bottom” for Bitcoin this winter, the top coin had failed to hold the mark during the recent sell-off. “That said,” he added, “when you look at historical [patterns] and where things are going, I think the bottom is near.”

He corroborated his analysis by noting the pressure on Bitcoin miners, many of whom are shuttering operations as the asset’s price tumble squeezes profits. Kayamori noted:

“If there’s enough miners going out of business, that [means] equilibrium is near. When you look at how markets overshoot, both up and down, you can probably say it’s close to the bottom.”

Kayamori claimed that Japanese regulators are now starting to open up again to approve new crypto exchanges and token listings following the the theft of $534 million worth of crypto in January from Japanese exchange Coincheck.

Moreover, the majority of domestic exchanges are coming close to fulfilling the terms of the business improvement orders that were issued by Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) to clean up the industry in the aftermath of the Coincheck hack.

With better practices in place across governance, compliance, asset segregation, secure cold wallet storage — as well as increased participation from financial industry veterans — Japan’s crypto landscape is in a period of “consolidation,” he said.

Noting that Japan was the “first global economic powerhouse” to regulate crypto, Kayamori pointed to the country’s pioneering attention to the industry’s latest fundraising model, the successor to Initial Coin Offerings (ICO): Security Token Offerings, or STOs.

Additionally, the FSA is reportedly working on ICO regulations to protect investors from fraud. And, as reported today, Japan’s government is also purportedly currently seeking ways to prevent tax evasion on profits from crypto transactions.



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Breakout Inbound? Bitcoin Price Sets $4,000 as Upside Target


The bitcoin price on Tuesday jumped as high as 6.1 percent against the US Dollar but failed to sustain a bullish momentum.

The BTC/USD index is trading at 3910-fiat at press time, up 4.5 percent from the intraday low at 3741-fiat. The pair is undergoing a pullback action after failing to sustain its run above 4000-fiat. The said level still has a lot of bearish activity going around while an equally strong buying sentiment can be seen at 3741-fiat, which has reversed downside corrections twice in the past 36 hours. It puts BTC/USD in a consolidation — a sort of bias conflict awaiting a breakout action.

BTC/USD 4H CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

The consolidation continues inside a symmetrical triangle formation – as also discussed in our previous analysis. BTC/USD is testing 4000-fiat as its psychological resistance while also eyeing the triangle resistance (falling trend line) as a potential long target. A breakout above the said levels could confirm a bullish bias in the near-term. Its longevity will be confirmed if the pair completes an inverse head and shoulder formation by testing the neckline level at 5578-fiat.

A symmetrical triangle formation also opens similar possibilities of a breakdown action. Thus, a break below the triangle support (rising trend line) could confirm a near-term bearish bias, with an interim short target waiting at 3592-fiat.

The RSI momentum indicator is showing signs of reversals, which could push it toward the selling sentiment area. The MACD indicator is also trending inside a negative territory.

Macroeconomic Factors

Meanwhile, the fundamentals are becoming stronger for bitcoin as Nasdaq has officially confirmed that will add support for bitcoin futures next year. The world’s second largest stock exchange has partnered with VanEck to roll out the said trading market. VanEck is the same company whose bitcoin ETF is being reviewed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The dollar, on the other hand, is looking weaker on Tuesday as the Fed reportedly prepares to pause its interest rate hike, leading to a slippage in the US Treasury yields. The curve inversion further prompted fears of a probable recession in the market. Such fears could allow investors to pool their money into assets like bitcoin that are away from the decisions of the government or any other financial authority.

BTC/USD Intraday Positions

BTC/USD 1H CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

According to our intraday analysis, the bitcoin price testing 3998-fiat as its interim resistance and 3901-fiat as interim support. An ongoing bullish price action reversal at 3901-fiat is prompting us to open a long position towards 3998. As we do, we’ll put a stop loss order just $10 below the local swing low. A break above 3998-fiat, meanwhile, would have us go long after 4095-fiat, our primary upside target while maintaining a stop loss order just $5 below the level at which we entered.

The invalidation of current bullish price action would have us wait for the bitcoin price to break below interim support. As it happens, we’ll open a short trade towards the channel support depicted in purple to the downside. A stop loss order, meanwhile, will be maintained at 3911-fiat to protect our trade from potential additional losses.

Featured Image from Shutterstock. Charts from TradingView.

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