France’s Nationwide Gaming Authority (ANJ) is reportedly planning to dam entry to Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market that gained prominence in the course of the US presidential election.
The platform, which operates on decentralized know-how, recorded $3.5 billion in buying and selling quantity as customers wagered on election outcomes.
In keeping with a report from French news outlet The Big Whale, ANJ is investigating Polymarket’s operations to evaluate its compliance with French playing legal guidelines.
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French Dealer Earns Hundreds of thousands By Betting On Trump
This scrutiny intensified after a French dealer, recognized as “Theo,” positioned multimillion-dollar bets on Donald Trump’s re-election. Theo reportedly earned a $47 million payout following Trump’s victory, sparking widespread regulatory issues.
The French regulator is reportedly contemplating blocking Polymarket’s domains and pressuring media retailers to keep away from linking to the platform.
Nevertheless, technical restrictions might be circumvented, as customers solely want a crypto pockets to entry Polymarket, and identification verification isn’t required. Digital personal networks (VPNs) might additionally permit customers to bypass potential restrictions.
Polymarket, which processed over $294 million in buying and selling quantity on 5 November 2024 alone, has confronted regulatory scrutiny earlier than. In 2021, the US Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC) started investigating the platform for alleged violations of market laws.
French man makes $50 Million bag on Polymarket, and the regulators IMMEDIATLY rush to ban it
Can't be having any Winners in Europe
This entire continent is a fuckin joke at this level https://t.co/qlgwsz07Ym pic.twitter.com/ujJK8CiL9x
— Wazz (@WazzCrypto) November 7, 2024
The CFTC has since proposed guidelines to handle potential manipulation dangers in prediction markets. Regardless of this, the business continues to draw billions in wagers globally, elevating issues about insider buying and selling and market manipulation.
The dealer Theo first gained consideration after being recognized in a Reuters report two weeks earlier than Election Day. Polymarket later confirmed that it had contacted Theo, describing the person as an skilled dealer with a background in monetary companies.
The platform’s investigation concluded that Theo’s bets have been based mostly on private political views, fairly than any try to control the market.
Polymarket operates uniquely in comparison with conventional betting platforms. By leveraging blockchain know-how, it allows customers to position cryptocurrency-based wagers with out intermediaries.
Whereas the corporate at the moment controls which betting proposals are listed, this might evolve if the platform decentralizes by a token launch.
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Polymarket Demonstrates Predictive Accuracy
Regardless of its regulatory challenges, Polymarket has demonstrated predictive accuracy previously. It accurately forecasted Donald Trump’s win and Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race weeks earlier than these occasions occurred.
Nevertheless, its rising affect and substantial buying and selling volumes have made it a goal for regulators worldwide.
Earlier this yr, 5 US Senators and three Home representatives known as for a ban on betting actions linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
The bipartisan group consists of distinguished figures comparable to Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, amongst others.
The group expressed issues over the opportunity of billionaires leveraging giant wagers to sway election outcomes, thereby eroding public belief within the democratic course of.
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