Issues are turning unusual on Polymarket. With the U.S. election simply days away, several mysterious whales have popped up on the blockchain prediction market Polymarket. They’re inserting bets which might be swaying the percentages on the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris race.
Because it stands, Donald Trump has a 67% probability to win the election and is simply 4 extra share factors away from breaking his highs simply earlier than Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Right here’s who the whales are betting on to win this election season.
The Whale Making Waves on Polymarket
Trump’s odds on platforms like Polymarket have shot as much as a dizzying 67%, because of the enigmatic whale “zxgngl.” This deep-pocketed participant has poured greater than $7.5 million in USDC into bets backing Trump, shaking up the market panorama and sparking widespread intrigue.
Lookonchain, an on-chain intelligence agency, famous this week, “Since Oct 11, the whale has spent 7.22 million $USDC to purchase 11.28 million ‘Sure’ shares on Donald Trump successful the US election.”
"zxgngl": opened this month, solely bets on one market, appears to execute primarily through steady TWAP (or comparable algo) to purchase Trump/YES
"Theo4": executes a combo of TWAP + sharp bets, additionally joins Oct 2024 pic.twitter.com/zISypqq9fr— Lily (@nope_its_lily) October 28, 2024
Decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket and Polkamarket provide a novel glimpse into the collective sentiment of traders, probably offering extra correct forecasts than typical polls.
Billionaire Elon Musk has identified the potential of those markets to supply lifelike predictions, as they combination knowledge from numerous individuals, every inserting monetary stakes within the outcomes.
Implications for Prediction Markets
Polymarket has shot to the highest because the go-to hub for political odds, with Trump’s probabilities taking a dramatic flip upward initially of October. The platform’s buying and selling quantity has skyrocketed, fueled by U.S. election predictions that spiked prediction market exercise by 565% in simply the third quarter. This surge highlights an ever-growing belief in blockchain tech to learn the political pulse.
As we’ve argued on 99Bitcoins for years, blockchain could make elections fairer and extra clear by eliminating third-party affect.
This would be the first election the place we discover out if a blockchain-based prediction market might be correct or BS. In different phrases, how a lot of the location is manipulation in comparison with actual professional whales?
With the U.S. presidential election drawing close to, these enigmatic traders might be enjoyable to observe. As these platforms achieve traction and clout, they may simply upend our understanding of political forecasting, presenting a decentralized take that rivals the old-school polls. Within the coming days, all eyes might be on Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s election odds and the traders shaping this narrative.
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